1-27. U.S. military analysis of an operational environment, including a composite environment created for training, professional education, and leader development purposes, focuses on eight interrelated operational variables: political, military, economic, social, information, infrastructure, physical environment, and time—collectively referred to as PMESII-PT. The following is a list of PMESII-PT conditions and trends found in China. It is not comprehensive, but it suggests a number of possible factors that U.S. exercise planners might use when constructing scenarios:
Political:
- The fractious relationship between China and Taiwan.
- Maritime disputes in the South and East China Seas.
- Complex sociopolitical interactions between China and North Korea.
- Land border disputes and frictions.
- Friction between the CPC and the growing quasi-capitalist ultra-wealthy class.
- Expansion of Chinese influence in emerging markets, particularly in Africa and Southwest Asia.
- Human rights violations, particularly against internal political opposition and minorities, and the harassment and mistreatment of journalists.
- Separatism in Western China.
- Major anticorruption efforts at every level of government.
Military:
- Growing use of high-technology weapons systems such as fifth-generation and low-observable aircraft, ballistic and cruise missiles, precision munitions, and networked warfare.
- Ongoing top-to-bottom reform of the PLA, including widespread professionalization.
- Expansion of standoff precision munitions and other antiaccess capabilities.
- Establishment of hardened military facilities on islands, both natural and manmade, throughout the Western Pacific.
- Gradual expansion of PLA expeditionary capabilities, particularly throughout the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans.
Economic:
- Continued liberalization of formerly hardline Marxist-Leninist and Maoist economic policy.
- Threats to critical shipping lanes and overland trade routes linking China with its export markets.
- Export and trade restrictions on raw materials, particularly on rare but critical metals.
- Major anticorruption efforts at every level of government.
- Complex economic relationship with North Korea.
Social:
- Increased internal frictions with minority groups, particularly in and around distressed border regions.
- Continued adoption of Western cultural products, especially by younger generations.
- Social resistance to heavy-handed governmental approach to internal security.
- Increased frictions between quasi-capitalist Chinese oligarchs and more-traditional CPC supporters due to failure to quell corruption.
Information:
- Extensive use of cyber activities—official, unofficial, and third party—to influence conditions domestically and abroad.
- Ongoing active People’s Republic of China (PRC) cyber activities attempting to extract sensitive or classified information from foreign networks, particularly those in defense industries.
- Sophisticated information operations campaigns to influence both global and regional politics.
Infrastructure:
- Continued development of domestic infrastructure with a focus on the export economy.
- Heavy investment in overseas infrastructure, particularly in emerging markets for Chinese export goods.
Physical Environment:
- Ongoing effects of global climate change reducing availability of arable land and threatening low-lying coastal areas.
- Increasing frequency and severity of tropical storms, which affect military and economic development in the Western Pacific.
- Shortsighted environmental policies creating public health crises due to air and water pollution and rapid depletion of shared international resources, such as fisheries.
Time:
- The Chinese have historically taken a much longer view of time than the United States.
- The PLA has deliberately chosen to adopt a more Western view of time as part of its ongoing military reforms.